Model Comparison for a Complex Ecological System.dvi

The ecological consequences of climate change and its interaction with other environmental pressures, such as nutrient pollution, are little understood. For freshwater ecosystems, knowledge of these combined effects is required for water resource management and in particular for successful implementation of the European Community Water Framework Directive 2000, which requires that all surface waters should be at, or above, ‘good status’ by 2016. Statistical analysis of detailed long-term environmental data sets can be used to unravel these combined effects and Loch Leven (Scotland) has one of the largest and most extensive of such data sets. The system has been routinely monitored since 1967 and over this period there has been evidence of climate change and a period of eutrophication and recovery at the loch. Transfer functions, additive models and varying-coefficient models are used to explore the effects of these influences on the complex ecological system at Loch Leven.